A Novel Method for Fitting Unimodal Continuous Distributions on a Bounded Domain Utilizing Expert Judgment Estimates
نویسندگان
چکیده
Recent advances in computation technology for simulation/uncertainty analyses have shed new light on the triangular distribution and its use to describe the uncertainty of bounded input phenomena. Herein, we develop a novel fitting procedure for a continuous unimodal (four-parameter) family of distributions on a bounded domain, utilizing three properly selected quantile estimates and an estimate of the most likely value. The family in question is the two-sided power (TSP) family of which the triangular distribution is a member. We analyze some of the procedure's fitting characteristics and use them to estimate the waiting time distribution in a stationary M/G/1 queuing system and the completion time distribution of a small project network example taken from the shipbuilding domain.
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تاریخ انتشار 2005